August 30, 2022
Despite being the most mature market in the world, U.S. subscription streaming video-on-demand revenue will grow by $14 billion, from $43 billion in 2021 to a peak of $56 billion in 2024, according to new data from Digital TV Research. Thereafter, revenue growth will be almost flat from 2024 to 2027 due to price competition and declining ARPU (average revenue per user) from Netflix’s ad-supported standby subscription level.
Netflix will have 63 million US subscribers by 2027, down 4 million from 2021. Hulu, Disney+, HBO Max and Paramount+ will each claim 40-50 million subscribers by 2027. Some consolidation — mergers and closures — is likely, according to analyst Simon Murray.
“Netflix will remain the SVOD revenue winner,” he said in a statement. “However, the platform will lose $1.4 billion in SVOD revenue between 2022 and 2027 due to declining ARPUs from 2023. Netflix will more than recoup these lost subscription revenues with advertising sales.”
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